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Football Betting Tips

All in all February proved another succesful month for our tipsters, with a profit of 4.65 points on 12.5 points staked (a yield of some 37%). That put us 20.565 points up for the season so far, from 83.5 points staked - a yield just shy of 25%...

Saturday 13 March 2010

1.5pts on Bolton to beat Wigan at 11/10 (Bwin)

Since heavy defeats at Blackburn and Tottenham at the back end of February, Owen Coyle's sides fortunes have reversed with back to back wins over Wolves and West Ham lifting them clear of the relegation spots going into their midweek game against Sunderland.

Wigan however were on a firmly downward trajectory going into their game with on Liverpool Monday night, with three draws and five defeats in their preceeding eight games.

Home soil could be a factor here, despite the short travelling distance between the grounds and Bolton's improving fortunes could also give them the edge. Wigan's results however are erratic at the best of times, so we've kept the stakes low, whilst plumping for the home side to take points.

0.5pts on Stoke to draw with Aston Villa at 9/4 (Sky Bet) and 0.5pts on Burnley to draw with Wolves at 12/5 (Sky Bet)

Stoke's home form has been strong so far this season, with six wins, four draws, and four defeats forming the basis of another strong campaign. Aston Villa meanwhile are again challenging for a place in the Champions League, and another shot at a Wembley final. That makes the outcome of this clash uncertain, and the odds reflect that. Villa's away form is good rather than spectacular and there is a risk here that recent cup distractions will play their part. However on their day Villa are capable of scoring against anyone and that means they will undoubtedly be a threat. This could go either and the odds on the draw look fair value given that uncertainty. There are risks on both sides here though so we'll keep the stakes to a minimum.

Burnley versus Wolves meanwhile is a classic relegation six-pointer. Burnley have slipped right down towards the relegation spots since their promising early season form turned sour. They'll be eyeing this as a big must-win game and home advantage could be crucial. Wolves however, are one of the few sides in the bottom half to have picked up a couple of wins away from home already this term, and they'll be well prepared too. Again, this could go either way - Burnley may re-discover their early season home form and romp home comfortable winners or Wolves may turn in the kind of performance that saw them take 3 points from Spurs earlier this term. What is clear is that neither side will be prepared to lose this though and that makes a cagey draw perhaps reasonable value at 12/5, albeit again at small stakes.

1pts on both teams to score in Hull vs Arsenal at 10/11 (William Hill)

Hull have a reasonable home record for a side battling relegation, with five wins, five draws and three defeats from their 13 home league games to date. Of those thirteen games they have scored in 10, including against Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea, and failed to score in just three. Arsenal meanwhile are relatively susceptible to conceding away from home, conceding in eleven of their fourteen away league games to date, including against Portsmouth, Burnley, West Ham, and Sunderland. There is every chance that Arsenal will romp home to a comfortable win, or Hull will grind something out against an Arsenal side recovering from their midweek European game, but at odds of 10/11 the statistics suggest this is a good value play despite the risks involved.

Season-long tips progress

As the season draws to a close, we'll keep a weekly check on how our pre-season football tips are shaping up. The latest update is as of 9 March 2010...

Summary

Premiership

5pts on Arsenal to finish in the top four at 1/2
3pts on Portsmouth to get relegated at 9/4
3pts on Man Utd not to win the Premier League at 1/2
3pts on Burnley to get relegated at 8/13
0.5pts on Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth to get relegated at 16/1
1pts on Fernando Torres to be top scorer in Premiership (each way) at 4/1

Football League

3pts on West Brom to finish top midlands club in the Championship at 5/4

2pts on Leeds to get promoted from League One at 10/11
1pts on Norwich to get promoted from League One at 5/2
0.5pts on Jermaine Beckford to be top scorer in League One each way at 4/1
0.5pts on Grant Holt to be top scorer in League One each way at 25/1

Premiership

5pts on Arsenal to finish in the top 4 at odds of 1/2 (Bet365)

This looks the most certain of all our pre-season tips with the Gunners challenging for the title while steering well clear of the battle for 4th place.

Latest Verdict: home and hosed

3pts on Man Utd not to win the Premier League at 1/2 (Betfair)

The loss of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez persuaded us that this might not be United's year. Rooney has stepped up to the plate though amicably and United are well in the title hunt.

Latest Verdict: In the balance

3pts on Portsmouth to get relegated at 9/4

Pompey went into the season looking weak in firepower and vulnerable to a string of defeats. Things have just got worse since and this looks like a reasonably safe bet barring a miraculous upturn in fortunes on the south coast.

Latest Verdict: Looking good for the tip, but not for Pompey

3pts on Burnley to get relegated at 8/13 (Bet365)

This looked a poor choice earlier in season, but just like Hull last season we thought the early-season promise would fade sooner rather than later and Burnley are beginning to look precarious.

Latest Verdict: Burnley are still in the fight but looking vulnerable.

0.5pts on Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth to get relegated at 16/1 (Paddy Power)

Again one of our more speculative plays, at the time of writing these three are the bottom three. That can change quickly though and those that followed the tip may take this opportunity to hedge out with the odds down to around 3/1.

Latest Verdict: On course but there's a long way to go.

1pts on Fernando Torres to be top Premiership scorer each-way at 4/1 (Blue Square)

Torres has had a torrid time of it with Liverpool's poor form combining with injury to prevent Torres reaching his peak so far this term. He is still only a couple of goals shy of the top five scorers though so is still in with a shout of bring home some joy with the each way play but at the moment we'll just have to wait and see.

Latest Verdict: Speculative at best but still a small chance of a return.

Championship

3pts on West Brom to finish top Midlands club at 5/4

This looked a safe enough play going into the campaign but the Baggies have slipped up in recent weeks and Notts Forest are pushing them hard for 2nd place.

Latest Verdict: Still in with a shout but Forest may just pip them unless form improves soon.

League One

2pts on Leeds to get promoted at 10/11

Leeds were pre-season favourites for the title and led for much of the way until Norwich overtook them. Now they are in a real battle to maintain second place.

Latest Verdict: Still there or there abouts but seriously faltering.

1pts on Norwich to get promoted at 5/2

The Canaries got off to a woeful start in League One with a 7-1 home defeat to Colchester. Since then they haven't looked back though and despite some tough games coming up the Canaries are currently well on course for promotion.

Latest Verdict: Still some hurdles to overcome but nevertheless looking strong.

0.5pts E/W on Jermaine Beckford to be top scorer in League One at 4/1 (Bet365)

Southampton duo Lambert and Barnard lead the way in this market as things stand but Beckford is just a few goals behind so still very much in the running.

Latest Verdict: On course for the each way play if not the golden boot.

0.5pts E/W on Grant Holt to be top scorer in League One at 25/1 (Blue Square)

With 20 league goals to date, Holt is just two behind Lambert. At 25/1 this could produce a great return whether as an outright or each-way winner.

Latest Verdict: On course for a good payout even if Grant fails to top the chart.

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